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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 25

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model