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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.35 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP