Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.157 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CIN defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- CIN offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- CIN on 3 more days rest than BAL
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
CIN
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:07 FG BAL (8:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CIN 0 – BAL 3
- Q2 13:31 TD BAL (13:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – BAL 9
- Q2 05:02 TD CIN (5:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-H.Hurst for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BAL 10
- Q2 00:08 FG CIN (:08) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – BAL 10
- Q3 10:54 FG BAL (10:54) 9-J.Tucker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CIN 10 – BAL 13
- Q4 09:46 FG BAL (9:46) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CIN 10 – BAL 16
- Q4 02:00 TD CIN (2:00) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – BAL 16
- Q4 00:03 FG BAL (:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CIN 17 – BAL 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 50%
(13:03) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to BAL 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%
(8:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 20 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(6:07) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to BAL 28, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 4 yards (17-S.Morgan).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%
(2:58) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 58%
(1:27) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to 50, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 63%
(11:22) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 49%
(2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%
(:08) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 52%
(12:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Wallace.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 40Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 55%
(10:54) 9-J.Tucker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 17-S.Morgan.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(9:46) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.