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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to BAL 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP