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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model