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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 9-J.Tucker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP