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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 17-S.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model