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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.77 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model