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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to 50, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.45 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP