4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 32

Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NE 45 for -13 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon) [9-M.Judon], RECOVERED by NE-23-K.Dugger at NE 41. 23-K.Dugger for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model