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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DET
60.5%
NE
39.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Bailey Zappe (NE): -0.264 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NE starting Bailey Zappe in place of Brian Hoyer)
  • NE defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Bailey Zappe (NE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
NE 20
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DET

Quintez Cephus WR Out Foot
D.J. Chark WR Out Ankle
John Cominsky DT Out Wrist
Charles Harris DE Out Groin
Matt Nelson T Out Calf
D'Andre Swift RB Out Shoulder
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Finger
Kayode Awosika G Questionable Hamstring
Chris Board LB Questionable Knee
Evan Brown C Questionable Ankle
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Ankle
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Questionable Ankle

NE

Lawrence Guy DT Out Shoulder
DaMarcus Mitchell DE Out Concussion
Mac Jones QB Doubtful Ankle
Jonnu Smith TE Doubtful Ankle
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Knee
Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Thumb
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Knee
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Hamstring
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Ribs
Isaiah Wynn T Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 0
–
NE 29

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:50 FG NE (8:50) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 59th consecutive FG under 50 yds, extends NFL record. DET 0 – NE 3
  • Q2 14:19 FG NE (14:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. DET 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 03:40 TD NE (3:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NE 45 for -13 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon) [9-M.Judon], RECOVERED by NE-23-K.Dugger at NE 41. 23-K.Dugger for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – NE 12
  • Q2 00:05 FG NE (:05) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. DET 0 – NE 16
  • Q3 10:13 FG NE (10:13) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. DET 0 – NE 19
  • Q3 01:57 TD NE (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – NE 25
  • Q4 05:05 FG NE (5:05) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. DET 0 – NE 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (11:18) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DET 45 for no gain (90-C.Barmore; 92-D.Godchaux).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (8:50) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 59th consecutive FG under 50 yds, extends NFL record.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

    (14:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NE 45 for -13 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon) [9-M.Judon], RECOVERED by NE-23-K.Dugger at NE 41. 23-K.Dugger for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:56) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NE 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for 12 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). PENALTY on NE-55-J.Uche, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NE 26.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (10:13) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 70%

    (6:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to NE 34 for no gain (31-Jo.Jones).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 14-A.St. Brown (27-M.Bryant).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to DET 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-K.Raymond to DET 35 for 10 yards (22-Co.Davis).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 76%

    (9:25) 42-J.Jackson up the middle to NE 32 for -1 yards (50-R.McMillan).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (5:05) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 93%

    (3:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 8-J.Reynolds (13-Ja.Jones) [58-A.Jennings].

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:34) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to DET 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 6 yards (23-K.Dugger; 22-Co.Davis).