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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 55

Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DET 45 for no gain (90-C.Barmore; 92-D.Godchaux).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model