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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 34

Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 19

What Actually Happened

(6:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to NE 34 for no gain (31-Jo.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.85 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model