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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 31
Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 26
What Actually Happened
(9:25) 42-J.Jackson up the middle to NE 32 for -1 yards (50-R.McMillan).
The Three Options
GO
+2.40 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
- 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
KICK
+0.90 EP
- 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
