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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 11

New England Patriots 26 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP