4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 19

New England Patriots 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 59th consecutive FG under 50 yds, extends NFL record.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model