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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 31

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP