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Houston Texans

1-3-1 HC Lovie Smith
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Jacksonville Jaguars

2-3 HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 ET TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

HOU
34.7%
JAX
65.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.004 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.131 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20 13–27
–
JAX 24 17–31
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

HOU

Blake Cashman LB Out Concussion
Austin Deculus T Out Ankle
Brevin Jordan TE Out Ankle
Chris Moore WR Out Hip
Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Ankle
Jake Hansen LB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Quadricep
K'Lavon Chaisson LB Questionable Ankle
Zay Jones WR Questionable Ankle
Cole Van Lanen G Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
JAX 6

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:25 FG JAX (1:25) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 12:29 FG HOU (12:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 03:28 FG HOU (3:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:11 FG JAX (:11) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 6 – JAX 6
  • Q4 03:14 TD HOU (3:14) 31-D.Pierce up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – JAX 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:09) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 20 for 6 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 32-G.Wallow).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 10 yards (42-A.Wingard, 6-C.Claybrooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 32%

    (10:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to JAX 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-G.Arnold.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 45%

    (7:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 25-D.King.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 32 for 15 yards (34-T.Hairston).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (1:25) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 75%

    (12:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 61%

    (8:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Kirk (25-D.King).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (3:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (:11) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 30%

    (2:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 59%

    (12:34) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey; 96-M.Collins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 3 yards (6-C.Claybrooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-E.Engram.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →