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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 20 for 6 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 32-G.Wallow).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model