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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Kirk (25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.94 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model