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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 33

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.06 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model