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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 49

Houston Texans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP