Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 6

(10:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 3 yards (6-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.45 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model