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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-E.Engram.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model