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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 43

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model