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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model