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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 6-M.Haack punts 31 yards to DEN 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-35-D.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP