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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
Thursday 2022-10-06 · 20:15 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

IND
33.4%
DEN
66.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (IND): -0.065 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 18
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

IND

Julian Blackmon S Out Ankle
Shaquille Leonard LB Out Concussion
Tyquan Lewis DE Out Concussion
Jonathan Taylor RB Out Ankle

DEN

Jonathon Cooper LB Out Hamstring
P.J. Locke S Out Concussion
Quinn Meinerz G Out Hamstring
Aaron Patrick LB Out Concussion
Tyrie Cleveland WR Questionable Hamstring
Darius Phillips CB Questionable Hamstring
Billy Turner T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 12
–
DEN 9

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 FG DEN (9:32) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. IND 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 11:02 FG DEN (11:02) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. IND 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:17 FG IND (:17) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 3 – DEN 6
  • Q3 08:56 FG IND (8:56) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 6 – DEN 6
  • Q3 03:23 FG DEN (3:23) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. IND 6 – DEN 9
  • Q4 00:08 FG IND (:08) 7-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 9 – DEN 9
  • Q5 05:54 FG IND (5:54) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 12 – DEN 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:48) 6-M.Haack punts 31 yards to DEN 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-35-D.Jackson.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (9:32) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (6:33) 6-M.Haack punts 37 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to IND 40, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 34-I.Rodgers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:22) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Washington to DEN 13 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:50) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to IND 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 34-I.Rodgers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 32. 34-I.Rodgers to IND 32 for no gain (16-T.Cleveland).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (11:02) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 33%

    (3:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to IND 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-50-J.Griffith.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 34-I.Rodgers to IND 34 for 13 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

    (8:56) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (4:35) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-G.Stewart), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

    (3:23) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:00) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 43%

    (10:53) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to IND 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 33-D.Flowers pushed ob at IND 29 for 9 yards (26-M.Boone).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:02) 6-M.Haack punts 54 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Washington to DEN 15 for 3 yards (41-G.Stuard).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%

    (3:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 82-E.Saubert to IND 19 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke; 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (:08) 7-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.