Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 64

Denver Broncos 6 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(12:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 34-I.Rodgers to IND 34 for 13 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model