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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model