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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 27

Denver Broncos 6 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.99 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model