Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Denver Broncos 9

(2:00) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model