Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Denver Broncos 9

(7:02) 6-M.Haack punts 54 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Washington to DEN 15 for 3 yards (41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model