4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 28

Denver Broncos 9 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 82-E.Saubert to IND 19 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.61 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model