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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(:08) 7-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model