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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 90

Denver Broncos 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to IND 40, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 34-I.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model