4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to LAC 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 1-D.Carter to LAC 25 for 12 yards (56-D.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model