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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LAC
50.9%
CLE
49.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Jacoby Brissett (CLE) -0.045 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.190 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Hamstring
Josh Palmer WR Questionable Ankle
Dustin Hopkins K Questionable right Quadricep

CLE

Taven Bryan DT Questionable Hamstring
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 30
–
CLE 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:12 TD CLE (12:12) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 04:06 TD CLE (4:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – CLE 13
  • Q1 02:30 FG LAC (2:30) 12-T.Bertolet 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – CLE 14
  • Q2 13:43 TD LAC (13:43) 25-J.Kelley right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – CLE 14
  • Q2 05:57 TD LAC (5:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – CLE 14
  • Q2 02:59 TD CLE (2:59) 72-H.Froholdt and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – CLE 20
  • Q3 10:28 TD LAC (10:28) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-28-J.Owusu-Koramoah, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LAC 23 – CLE 21
  • Q3 05:50 FG LAC (5:50) 12-T.Bertolet 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 27 – CLE 21
  • Q3 01:01 TD CLE (1:01) 72-H.Froholdt and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – CLE 27
  • Q4 09:32 FG LAC (9:32) 12-T.Bertolet 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 30 – CLE 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 79%

    (8:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 81-M.Williams (21-D.Ward).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (2:30) 12-T.Bertolet 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to LAC 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 1-D.Carter to LAC 25 for 12 yards (56-D.Allen).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to LAC 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:55) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to CLE 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%

    (:16) 3-C.York 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:55) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right guard to CLE 30 for -4 yards (95-C.Covington).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (5:50) 12-T.Bertolet 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (9:32) 12-T.Bertolet 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams (23-M.Emerson).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%

    (:16) 3-C.York 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.