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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to LAC 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP