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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to CLE 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP