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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-C.York 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model