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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right guard to CLE 30 for -4 yards (95-C.Covington).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model