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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 12-T.Bertolet 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model