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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 35

Cleveland Browns 28 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-C.York 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model