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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 81-M.Williams (21-D.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model