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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model