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Las Vegas Raiders

1-4 HC Josh McDaniels
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Kansas City Chiefs

4-1 HC Andy Reid
Monday 2022-10-10 · 20:15 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

LV
26.9%
KC
73.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.325 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.000 EPA/dropback
  • LV offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LV 22 15–29
–
KC 28 21–35
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

LV

Jayon Brown LB Out Hamstring
Foster Moreau TE Questionable Knee
Sam Webb CB Questionable Hamstring

KC

Harrison Butker K Out left Ankle
Michael Danna DE Questionable Calf
Trey Smith G Questionable Pectoral
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 29
–
KC 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:36 TD LV (8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 14:03 TD LV (14:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – KC 0
  • Q2 09:27 FG LV (9:27) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 17 – KC 0
  • Q2 04:44 TD KC (4:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 17 – KC 6
  • Q2 00:21 FG LV (:21) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 20 – KC 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG KC (:03) 19-M.Wright 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LV 20 – KC 10
  • Q3 09:29 TD KC (9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 20 – KC 16
  • Q3 03:29 TD KC (3:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-5-D.Deablo, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LV 20 – KC 23
  • Q4 14:10 FG LV (14:10) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 23 – KC 24
  • Q4 07:30 TD KC (7:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 23 – KC 30
  • Q4 04:34 TD LV (4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 29 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:05) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to KC 14, Center-47-T.Sieg. 24-S.Moore to KC 21 for 7 yards (10-M.Hollins; 99-C.Ferrell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (4:07) 19-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:32) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to LV 23, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 68%

    (9:27) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (:21) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

    (14:10) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 37%

    (2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:47) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [32-N.Bolton].

    See the full breakdown →