Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.325 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- LV offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
LV
KC
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:36 TD LV (8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – KC 0
- Q2 14:03 TD LV (14:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – KC 0
- Q2 09:27 FG LV (9:27) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 17 – KC 0
- Q2 04:44 TD KC (4:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 17 – KC 6
- Q2 00:21 FG LV (:21) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 20 – KC 7
- Q2 00:03 FG KC (:03) 19-M.Wright 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LV 20 – KC 10
- Q3 09:29 TD KC (9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 20 – KC 16
- Q3 03:29 TD KC (3:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-5-D.Deablo, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LV 20 – KC 23
- Q4 14:10 FG LV (14:10) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 23 – KC 24
- Q4 07:30 TD KC (7:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 23 – KC 30
- Q4 04:34 TD LV (4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 29 – KC 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:05) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to KC 14, Center-47-T.Sieg. 24-S.Moore to KC 21 for 7 yards (10-M.Hollins; 99-C.Ferrell).
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Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 58Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%
(4:07) 19-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 54%
(12:32) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to LV 23, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.
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Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%
(9:27) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 76%
(:21) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 81%
(14:10) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 46 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 41%
(2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.
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Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(:47) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [32-N.Bolton].