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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model