4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 29

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP