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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 29 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(:47) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [32-N.Bolton].

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -0.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model